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The Science of Orbital Prediction

Accurate conjunction prediction requires more than simple trajectory extrapolation. AstroSweep's prediction engine incorporates sophisticated models of all forces acting on orbiting objects, from atmospheric drag and solar radiation pressure to complex gravitational perturbations from the Earth, Moon, and Sun.

Our proprietary algorithms have been refined through years of operational experience and continuous validation against actual conjunction events, resulting in prediction accuracy that consistently exceeds industry standards.

99.7%
Prediction Accuracy
85%
False Alarm Reduction
7 days
Advance Warning

Advanced Modeling Capabilities

High-Fidelity Propagation

Numerically integrated trajectories with comprehensive force modeling including higher-order gravity harmonics, atmospheric density models, and third-body effects.

Covariance Realism

Properly calibrated uncertainty estimates that reflect actual prediction errors, enabling accurate probability of collision calculations.

Monte Carlo Analysis

Statistical sampling methods for high-risk conjunctions, providing detailed probability distributions and confidence intervals.

Maneuver Modeling

Account for planned maneuvers and predict their effect on conjunction geometry, supporting operational planning.

Reducing Alert Fatigue

One of the greatest challenges in space domain awareness is managing the volume of potential conjunction events. AstroSweep's precision algorithms dramatically reduce false alarms, allowing operators to focus on genuine threats rather than spending valuable time investigating events that pose no real risk.

Continuous Improvement

Our prediction models are never static. We continuously validate our predictions against observed outcomes and incorporate lessons learned into our algorithms. This feedback loop ensures that AstroSweep's prediction accuracy improves over time as we accumulate more operational data.

We also actively track developments in space environment modeling and incorporate the latest scientific advances into our prediction engine, from improved atmospheric density models to more accurate solar activity predictions.

Experience Precision in Action

See how AstroSweep's prediction accuracy can transform your conjunction assessment operations.

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